Growth is positive in 2021 and 2022 at 3.7% and 3.6%, respectively. Values have been rounded. The vintage 2016 sub-county projections only covered 2016-2050 so a new procedure was needed to extend the current series to 2055. The state outlook also depends on the performance of the U.S. and global economies. Population: Total Population National Ranking Population Projections In-Migration 2017 Net Migration 2017 Educational Attainment 2017 Age 2018 Household income 2018 Race & Ethnicity Other Economic Indicators: Real GDP Growth Loading. 5513 0 obj <>stream These components, each projected separately, are combined to produce population projections by age, sex, race, and ethnic group. August, 2020 Third Quarter 2020 Forecast Update. 0 [Online]. That translated into 2.6% of Arizonas total personal income last year. George W. Hammond directs the Economic and Business Research Center in the Eller College of Management. The alternative scenarios, released in February 2020, were based on assumptions of low, high, and zero levels of immigration. The recovery begins in the third quarter, but even so, real GDP falls by 6.1% in 2020. The metro area population of Phoenix in 2021 was 4,584,000, a 1.62% increase from 2020. Innovation is the main driver and it depends in part on investments in human capital, primarily education. Overall, Arizona is on pace to recover to pre-pandemic levels of economic activity in 2021, probably well before the nation as a whole. International Population Estimates and Projections. Copyright 2022 The Arizona Board of Regents on behalf of The University of Arizona. The Census Bureau develops city and town population estimates by using updated housingunit estimates to distribute county household population to subcounty areas based on the average household population per housing unit. The average weekly wage in the Phoenix MSA for 2018was $1,038and the average annual wage in the Phoenix MSA was $53,966, putting the MSA in the top 20% of large regions nationally. Lock The main series was released with updates in September 2018 [See Errata Note]. Demographic Turning Points for the United States. 301-763-3030 or MAG produces population and employment projections by municipal planning area (MPA), incorporated jurisdiction, and regional analysis zone (RAZ). The Phoenix MSA has had a higher annual growth rate than the nation since 1980. Projecting the U.S. Population to 2050: Four Scenarios 1 Projecting the U.S. Population to 2050: Four Immigration Scenarios Executive Summary Depending on what Congress decides to do about immigration curtail it, expand it the United States is facing a future population just 45 years away that could vary by more than 135 million residents. Contact Dr. George Hammond at ghammond@arizona.edu. February 11, 2019. Originally Posted by Project525Project252 That may be true, but it's not just the big cities in the West that are growing, there's also the small towns up in the mountains which are attracting young adults to the area. The annual growth rate of 1.0% from 2020 to 2021 increased slightly from 0.8% in the 2019 to 2020 period. Press Release Census Bureau Releases New Population Projections for 30 Countries and Areas December 21, 2021 While only 4% of all cities and towns had a population of 50,000 or more in 2021, collectively they contained 129.3 million people nearly 39% of the U.S. population, said Crystal Delb, a statistician in the Population Division at the Census Bureau. Currently, you are using a shared account. Following Los Angeles in population size were Chicago, Illinois (2.7 million); Houston, Texas (2.3 million); Phoenix, Arizona (1.6 million); Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (1.6 million); San Antonio, Texas (1.5 million); San Diego, California (1.4 million); Dallas, Texas (1.3 million); and San Jose, California (1.0 million). It focuses on 2030 as a demographic turning point for the United States, but explores broader changes in the age, race, and ethnic composition of the population from 2020 to 2060. If you use our chart images on your site or blog, we ask that you provide attribution via a link back to this page. A lock ( U.S. Census Bureau - Population Estimates. Need more information about the outlook for Arizona, Phoenix, and Tucson? The current world population of 7.6 billion is expected to reach 8.6 billion in 2030, 9.8 billion in 2050 and 11.2 billion in 2100, according to a new United Nations report being launched today. Once the pandemic is over, the state will once again consistently generate robust job, outlook, and population gains. Chart and table of population level and growth rate for the state of Arizona from 1900 to 2022. The Phoenix MSA collected $4.7billion in sales tax revenue, which is 72% of the total sales tax collected by the state in FY 2019. An official website of the United States government. The state also adds 1.58 million jobs and $343 billion in real personal income during the forecast period. The household survey, which generates the state unemployment rate estimate, includes agricultural workers and the self-employed, as well as other groups excluded from the establishment survey. Keep in mind that the nonfarm payroll employment data reflect the number of jobs on payrolls of establishments during the pay period including the 12th of the month. to incorporate the statistic into your presentation at any time. Please check your download folder. The U.S. Census Bureau projected the U.S. population will be 334,233,854 on January 1, 2023. The population of Arizona in 2021 was 7,264,877, a 1.18% increase from 2020. The July U.S. forecast calls for real GDP to fall 35.5% (annualized rate) in the second quarter. Access demographic, economic and population data from the U.S. Census Bureau. All other methodology and assumptions, including fertility and mortality, are the same as those used in the main series. If you like this . Rounding out the list were three suburbs of Boise, Idaho: Meridian (5.2%), Caldwell (5.2%) and Nampa (5.0%). Secure .gov websites use HTTPS A Changing Nation: Population Projections. Medium projection; Rank Country Region . The purpose of this document is to present information on how the results of the 2009 National Population Projections vary according to different net international migration assumptions and compare to the 2008 National Population Projections in terms of population size and growth, age structure, and race and Hispanic origin distribution. Under those assumptions, the state continues to recover gradually, with job, income, population, and sales growth continuing. Register in seconds and access exclusive features. The state also adds 1.58 million jobs and $343 billion in real personal income. Per Capita Personal Income Compare Western States and U.S. Additional projections files are available via the Census Bureau application programming interface (API). Similarly, the state needs to invest in public infrastructure, like highways and roads, water and sewer, telecommunications, airports, and border ports of entry, to ensure that the state is competitive around the U.S. and globally. Yuma, Lake Havasu-Kingman, and Flagstaff were hit harder, with jobs down 7.1%, 9.0%, and 17.2%, respectively. Exhibit 2 shows the three scenarios for Arizona nonfarm jobs. Demographics will weigh on growth during the next 30 years, as natural increase shrinks as a source of population gains. While it is difficult to foresee the long-run impacts of the pandemic on Arizona while we are in the middle of the crisis, we do know that the factors that drive long-run economic performance in our per capita standard of living will be innovation, physical capital, and public infrastructure. Living Longer: Historical and Projected Life Expectancy in the U.S. Our surveys provide periodic and comprehensive statistics about the nation. Exhibit 2 shows the three scenarios for Arizona nonfarm jobs. The UN projects that the global population will increase from a population of around 8 billion in 2022 to 10.4 billion by the end of the century. The state outlook also depends on the performance of the U.S. and global economies. The long-run outlook for the state is strong. Only government spending, excluding transfers, rises (slightly) in 2020. The 30-year forecasts call for job, income, and sales growth in Arizona to gradually decelerate, reflecting slowing population gains due to the aging of the baby boom generation. Thanks in part to a massive infusion of funds through the CARES Act, Arizona personal income is forecast to rise by 3.1% this year. Even so, high unemployment keeps inflation low. The top five counties with the largest numeric gains in housing units between July 1, 2020, and July 1, 2021, were Harris County, Texas (34,132); Maricopa County, Arizona (29,935); Travis County, Texas (25,693); Los Angeles County, California (22,925); and Fort Bend County, Texas (14,230). To sign up for updates please enter your email address. Measuring America's People, Places, and Economy. This paper uses data from the 2011 ACS to determine the characteristics associated with naturalized citizens reporting the year they naturalized. Use Ask Statista Research Service. From March through August 8, unemployment insurance alone has injected $8.7 billion into the Arizona economy. These data did not paint such a rosy picture in June. Arizona, Texas, Florida and Idaho all had several places among the 15 fastest-growing cities or towns: San Antonio, Texas, topped the list of the largest numeric gainers with an increase of 13,626 people between 2020 and 2021. Arizonas job-population ratio rises during the next 30 years, reaching 44.1% by 2050. Employment begins to recover in the third quarter of 2020 (just as in the baseline), but does not reach the previous peak until the third quarter of 2022. During the next 30 years, Arizona population is forecast to rise by 2.81 million, hitting 10.1 million by 2050. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites. During the next 30 years, Arizona population is forecast to rise by 2.81 million, hitting 10.1 million by 2050. There is still a huge amount of uncertainty about the future of the outbreak and the economic impacts associated with it. Income growth is forecast to slow to 2.8% next year, as the fiscal stimulus is replaced by organic income gains. Secure .gov websites use HTTPS Innovation is the main driver and it depends in part on investments in human capital, primarily education. On an annual average basis, state job growth is forecast to hit 4.3% in 2021 (the rebound year) and then gradually decelerate to 1.8% by 2026. The 30-year forecasts call for job, income, and sales growth in Arizona to gradually decelerate, reflecting slowing population gains due to the aging of the baby boom generation. San Antonio, Texas, had the highest numeric gain of 13,626 people between 2020 and 2021. Changes in aging trends and life expectancy of selected countries. With each new release of annual estimates, the entire time series of estimates is revised for all years back to the date of the last census. Eight of the 15 fastest-growing large cities or towns by percent change were in the West with five in Arizona and seven in the South. Arizonas per capita personal income gap with the U.S. is expected to decline from -18.4% in 2019 to -13.0% by 2050. Employment recovers faster under the optimistic scenario, with jobs reaching their prior peak by the first quarter of 2021. United States Population Projections: 2000 to 2050, Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP), Download United States Population Projections: 2000 to 2050 [PDF - 1.7 MB]. Projected state population of the United States in 2040, by state (in millions) [Graph]. This statistic is not included in your account. Some content on this site is available in several different electronic formats. By including assumptions about the mortality of native and foreign-born people, the 2017 projections better account for the effects of international migration on the population of the United States. This means that net migration will be an increasingly important source of population gains. Overall, that implies that Arizona has replaced 46.4% of the jobs lost from February to April. Overview and forecasts on trending topics, Industry and market insights and forecasts, Key figures and rankings about companies and products, Consumer and brand insights and preferences in various industries, Detailed information about political and social topics, All key figures about countries and regions, Market forecast and expert KPIs for 600+ segments in 150+ countries, Insights on consumer attitudes and behavior worldwide, Business information on 70m+ public and private companies, Detailed information for 35,000+ online stores and marketplaces. 2017 National Population Projections Datasets, 2017 National Population Projections: Methodology and Assumptions, 2017 National Population Projections Alternative Scenarios: Methodology and Assumptions, Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP), 2017 National Populations Projections Tables: Alternative Scenarios, Census Bureau application programming interface, 2017 National Population Projections Tables: Main Series, 2017 National Population Projections Tables: Alternative Scenarios. Get full access to all features within our Business Solutions. Population projections are estimates of the population for future dates. Browse our collection of stories and more. Tables based on the 2017 series are available in the 2017 National Population Projections Tables: Main Series and 2017 National Populations Projections Tables: Alternative Scenarios sections. Its July 1, 2021, population of 8.5 million was more than twice that of the next largest city, Los Angeles, with a population of nearly 4 million. The global human population reached 8.0 billion in mid-November 2022 from an estimated 2.5 billion people in 1950, adding 1 billion people since 2010 and 2 billion since 1998. The Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale Metropolitan Statistical Area (Phoenix MSA) includes all of Maricopa County and Pinal County and is 14,587 square miles (Maricopa County, 9,223 square miles and Pinal County, 5,364 square miles). "Projected State Population of The United States in 2040, by State (in Millions). Historical and Projected Gains to Life Expectancy, 1960-2060. The current metro area population of Phoenix in 2023 is 4,717,000, a 1.4% increase from 2022. Overall, Arizona is on pace to recover to pre-pandemic levels of economic activity in 2021, probably well before the nation as a whole. These assumptions generate a continued gradual recovery in Arizona through the second half of 2020 and into 2021. Growth is positive in 2021 and 2022 at 3.7% and 3.6%, respectively. Fastest-Growing Cities Are Still in the West and South, Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP), population estimates for cities and towns, Percentage Change of Housing Units by State Map, release estimates of the July 1, 2021, population, www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/about/schedule.html, www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/technical-documentation/methodology.html. Note: Text in bold was updated at 10am on May 26, 2022. At this point, possible long-term impacts are speculative at best. The Phoenix MSA is home to 67% of the states population and has been one of the top growth areas in the nation. An official website of the United States government. The short-term outlook for the state remains uncertain and dependent on the progress of the outbreak and scientific progress in generating effective therapeutics and a vaccine. This means that net migration will be an increasingly important source of population gains. The complete list is available at. Both births and deaths are expected to rise during the forecast, but deaths increase at a faster pace. You need at least a Starter Account to use this feature. This infographic provides an overview of the Phoenix MSA including demographics, employment, and transportation. Ten years from now, the U.S. population will have almost 350 million people. Fiscal policy includes the actions to date, but no new major legislation was assumed in the July forecast. It is safe to say, however, that the more prevalent the virus becomes and the longer it takes to develop therapeutics and a vaccine, the larger and more extensive the long-term impact will be. The seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate bounced up to 10.0%, but remained below the national rate at 11.1%. The Arizona long-run projections rely on the IHS Markit 30-year forecast generated in March 2020. This projections series uses the official estimates of the resident population on July 1, 2016 as the base for projecting the US population from 2017 to 2060. U.S. and World Population Projections for News Years 2019. Only government spending, excluding transfers, rises (slightly) in 2020. Fiscal policy includes the actions to date, but no new major legislation was assumed in the July forecast. These projections are made for July 1 of each year in the projection period. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites. The seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate bounced up to 10.0%, but remained below the national rate at 11.1%. PHOENIX, AZ The 2020 Census released its final results, showing Maricopa County's drastic 15.8 percent population growth from 2010 to 2020. This report discusses projected changes in the U.S. population and summarizes results from the U.S. Census Bureau's 2017 National Population Projections. (February 11, 2019). Measuring America's People, Places, and Economy. New population estimates and projections and other demographic data up to the year 2100 for 30 countries and areas in the International Data Base (IDB). More than 80 percent of Arizona's 2020 population increase moved into Greater Phoenix. Browse our collection of stories and more. The three alternative scenarios are useful for analyzing potential outcomes of different levels of immigration. It is safe to say, however, that the more prevalent the virus becomes and the longer it takes to develop therapeutics and a vaccine, the larger and more extensive the long-term impact will be. Consumer spending remains the epicenter of the downturn, with a drop of 5.8% this year, but business fixed investment, residential investment, and net exports decline significantly as well. Tucson jobs were down 3.4%, while Phoenix jobs were down 5.7%. The top 15 largest cities remained the same as in 2020 although more than half experienced decreases in their population between 2020 and 2021: New York, New York (-305,465); Los Angeles, California (-40,537); Chicago, Illinois (-45,175); Houston, Texas (-11,777); Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (-24,754); San Diego, California (-3,783); Dallas, Texas (-14,777); San Jose, California (-27,419); and Indianapolis, Indiana (-5,343). The July U.S. forecast calls for real GDP to fall 35.5% (annualized rate) in the second quarter. Are you interested in testing our business solutions? Assessing the Year of Naturalization Data in the ACS. Department of Economic and Social Affairs, World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision, Office of Intergovernmental Support and Coordination for Sustainable Development, Division for Sustainable Development Goals, Division for Public Institutions and Digital Government, Financing for Sustainable Development Office, Division for Inclusive Social Development, Capacity Development Programme Management Office. All rights reserved. The Sun Corridor (Maricopa County, Pima County, and Pinal County) collected $5.6billion in sales tax revenue, making up 85% of the state total for FY 2019. Income growth is forecast to slow to 2.8% next year, as the fiscal stimulus is replaced by organic income gains. That would put the states income gap back to levels last seen in the 2000s. Backlinks from other websites and blogs are the lifeblood of our site and are our primary source of new traffic. Six cities crossed the 100,000 population mark in 2021: Bend, Oregon (102,059); Goodyear, Arizona (101,733); Buckeye, Arizona (101,315); Fishers, Indiana (101,171); Carmel, Indiana (100,777); and Tuscaloosa, Alabama (100,618). The source calculated the exponential growth rate for each of the 50 states and D.C. using population totals from 2010 and 2017. The Arizona long-run projections rely on the IHS Markit 30-year forecast generated in March 2020. Contact Dr. George Hammond at ghammond@arizona.edu. This projections series uses the official estimates of the resident population on July 1, 2016 as the base for projecting the US population from 2017 to 2060. The risks to the short-run outlook primarily revolve around the progress of the outbreak. Tucson jobs were down 3.4%, while Phoenix jobs were down 5.7%. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites. The world's . The states with the fewest housing units were Wyoming (274,400) and Alaska (327,900). A lock ( Keep in mind that the projections may be subject to large revisions in the future as new information impacts the outlook. COVID-19 and Projected Older Populations in Latin America. The state also adds 1.58 million jobs and $343 billion in real personal income during the forecast period. Grandparents Still Work to Support Grandchildren. Arizona Posted Another Solid Month of Job Gains in Arizonas Job Growth Revised Up in 2021 and 2022. The 2017 population projections series updates the prior series released in 2014, which was the first to incorporate separate assumptions about the fertility of native and foreign-born women living in the United States, since the latter tend to have higher fertility rates. About 1.3 million grandparents in the labor force are responsible for most of the basic care of coresident grandchildren under age 18. To sign up for updates please enter your email address. You need a Statista Account for unlimited access. Water resources and other environmental concerns will also have an important influence on growth in coming decades.

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